The sun-worshiping Mayans predicted the end
of the world in 2012. Even the bible codes hold cluster after cluster describing
a nasty solar event in 2012 –
Revelation 16:8-9 "And they fourth poured out his bowl
upon the sun; and it was given to it to burn men with fire. And men were burned
with great heat; and the blasphemed the name of God Who has the authority over
these plagues; and they did not repent to give Him glory."
“NASA
confirms solar storm by the end of 2012.” – NASA predicts a new
geomagnetic storm on the way following an eruption on the surface of the sun. Will
the world end in 2012?
What is a Solar Flare or Solar Storm?
A flare is a
sudden, rapid and intense variation in brightness. A solar flare occurs when
electro magnetic energy built up in the sun atmosphere is released due to some
reasons suddenly. As a result a sudden brightening is observed over the Sun’s
surface or the solar limb, and a large amount of energy is released. This is
followed by a huge coronal mass ejection (CME). With the release
of huge amount of magnetic energy, the electrons, protons, and heavy nuclei are
accelerated and are ejected through the corona into space (corona – outermost
layer- a type of plasma atmosphere of the Sun or any celestial body). The energy released during a flare is
typically on the order of 1027 ergs per second.
Large flares can emit up to 1032 ergs
of energy. This energy is ten million times greater than the energy released
from a volcanic explosion. On the other hand, it is less than one-tenth of the
total energy emitted by the Sun every second.
A
coronal mass ejection is a massive burst of solar wind, other light isotope
plasma, and magnetic fields rising above the solar corona.
What causes Solar Flares?
When accelerated charged particles interact
with the plasma medium of the sun, solar flares occur. The acceleration of the
particles could be due to magnetic reconnection. In high plasma
regions, a series of closely
occurring loops of magnetic lines of force quickly reconnect into a low arcade
of loops leaving a helix of magnetic field unconnected to the rest of the
arcade. The sudden release of energy in this reconnection is in the origin of
the particle acceleration. The unconnected magnetic helical field and the
material that it contains may violently expand outwards forming a CME.
The
frequency of flares coincides with the Sun's eleven year cycle. When the solar
cycle is at a minimum, active regions are small and rare and few solar flares
are detected. These increase in number as the Sun approaches the maximum part
of its cycle. We are now
heading for the peak of solar cycle 24 which is expected to reach its maximum
by July 2012. The Sun will be in her most active state by then.
The
First Solar Flare:
The first solar flare was recorded on
September 1, 1859 by 2 scientists Richard
C. Carrington and Richard Hodgson independently. When they were viewing
the sun spots, they suddenly identified a large flare in white light.
Description of a Singular Appearance
seen in the Sun on September1, 1859 by R C Carrington :While engaged in the forenoon of Thursday, Sept. 1, in taking my customary observation of .. the solar spots, an appearance was witnessed which I believe to be exceedingly rare. .. I had secured diagrams of all the groups and detached spots, and was engaged at the time in counting .. the spots .. when within the area of the great north group (the size of which had previously excited general remarks), two patches of intensely bright and white light broke out. .. I thereupon noted down the time by the chronometer, and seeing the outburst to be very rapidly on the increase, and being somewhat flurried by the surprise, I hastily ran to call some one to witness the exhibition with me, and on returning within 60 seconds, was mortified to find that it was already much changed and enfeebled. Very shortly afterwards the last trace was gone ..
On a Curious Appearance seen in the Sun by R Hodgson :
While observing a group of solar spots on the 1st September, I was suddenly surprised at the appearance of a very brilliant star of light, much brighter than the sun's surface, most dazzling to the protected eye, illuminating the upper edges of the adjacent spots and streaks, not unlike in effect the edging of the clouds at sunset; the rays extended in all directions; and the centre might be compared to the dazzling brilliancy of the bright star alpha-Lyrae when seen in a large telescope of low power. It lasted for some five minutes, and disappeared instantly about 11.25 a.m. The phenomenon was of too short duration to admit of a micrometrical drawing, but an eye-sketch was taken .. and .. the size of the group appears to have been about .. 60,000 miles. ..
The authors also note
that a magnetic disturbance was recorded simultaneously with the white light
flare observation, and also that "towards four hours after midnight there
commenced a great magnetic storm". The first recorded solar
flare is thus probably also the first observed instance, wherein a change on
the Sun was believed to have directly influenced the environment around the
Earth.
Recent Solar
Flares:
A powerful solar flare was observed during the
night of March 6-7, 2012. Experts have reported this as the largest solar flare
in five years. Its effects are now headed toward the earth. Solar flares
continue for a week till March 9, 2012. Geomagnetic storms caused by eruptions on the sun have
the potential to disrupt power grids, satellites that operate global
positioning systems and other devices, lead to some rerouting of flights over
the polar regions.
Can solar flares
be seen with naked eye?
Most of the energy of
solar flares goes to frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason
the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be
observed with special instruments, like GOES( Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellite). Flares are in fact
difficult to see against the bright emission from the photosphere. Instead,
specialized scientific instruments are used to detect the radiation signatures
emitted during a flare. The radio and optical emissions from flares can be
observed with telescopes on the Earth.
Adverse effects of Solar Flares :
Solar flares affect the
Central Nervous System (stomach lining), all brain activity (including
equilibrium), along with human behaviour and all psycho-physiological
(mental-emotional-physical) response. Solar flares can cause us to be
nervous, anxiousness, worrisome, jittery, dizzy, shaky, irritable, lethargic,
exhausted, have short term memory problems and heart palpitations, feel
nauseous, queasy, and to have prolonged head pressure and headaches.
Powerful
solar flares can generate huge holes in the ionosphere, which can negatively
affect people and equipment on earth. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes,
tornadoes, and wind storms appear to happen after strong solar activity on the
sun.
The
emitted photons affect the high-orbiting satellites of the Global Positioning
System, or GPS, creating timing delays and skewing positioning signals by as
much as half a football field, risking high-precision agriculture, oil
drilling, military and airline operations, financial transactions, navigation,
disaster warnings, and other critical functions relying on GPS accuracy. The energy put out by the flare could
damage electrical equipment and jam some communications. For example, in 1989,
a particularly large solar flare blacked out the grid of the entire province of Quebec
Can Solar Flares be predicted?
Richard
Canfield and David McKenzie from Montana State University in the US, and Hugh
Hudson from the Solar Physics Research Corporation in Japan, analysed two years
worth of images from the X-ray satellite Yohkoh. In addition to the link
between sigmoids and solar flares, they also confirmed that there was a link
between solar flares and sunspot activity.
In
another research, Reinard and NOAA intern Justin Henthorn of Ohio University
Mitigation:
Microelectronics:
Investigations
have shown that particle showers from solar storms radiation can affect the
performance of digital microelectronics systems causing increases in "soft
errors" based on altitude as well as geomagnetic latitude and longitude.
Gradual degradation of performance of electronics in harsh radiation
environments can be mitigated by incorporating proper shielding and control of
operating conditions. Other possible
approaches for mitigation of risk can include use of radiation-hardened devices
or derating a device for application in a harsh environment. Since the single-event effects (SEEs) and
soft error rates (SERs) are spontaneous and not reproducible, they are harder
to understand and prevent. The
mitigation measures generally focus on anomaly detection and redundancy check
before taking any action on data input.
This is one of the risks that will be most likely to affect the
performance of electronics in "Supervisory Control and Data
Acquisition" (SCADA) that are commonly used in many large distributed
systems and infrastructure segments, such as electric grid, railroad signaling
systems and telecommunication.
Space and aviation:
The
impact of solar storms on space and aviation can be significant. The effects can range from damage and
malfunctioning of satellites and instrumentation from specific CME events to
that of possible long-term radiation effects on interplanetary flights.
Research indicates that a (polar) flight route, altitude and even type of
aircraft are some of the risk factors that affect the level of radiation risks
to airline passengers and the crews.
Based on space weather forecasts, some airlines have considered
rerouting of flights from the shorter, high northern polar routes to more
southerly or lower-altitude flight paths to reduce the radiation risk against
additional cost of longer flights.
Although research in recent years has given us more insight into these
risks, more studies are needed for exposure monitoring and to determine
effective safety measures that reduce the radiation risk to the passengers and
the crews.
In
addition to the potential health hazards of radiation in high altitude flying,
there is also potential risk to onboard, flight-critical subsystems. Commercial aircraft manufacturers like Boeing
and Airbus have electromagnetic environment (EME) related qualification
practices for design of flight-critical components. They include multiple levels of redundancies
for safety critical subsystems, shielded cables and back up analog signal where
appropriate. The designs of newer (e.g.
Boeing 777) fly-bywire aircrafts incorporate more electronics than their older
counterparts do and EMP immunity cannot be fully assured without more extensive
testing. For satellites and space exploration, the risk of malfunctions and
catastrophic damage is real and many satellite anomalies and
failures/malfunctions have been attributed to the effects of solar storms. The knowledge gained from research and
failure/malfunction investigations are helping improve the protection in
designs and administrative measures.
Telecommunications:
Telecommunication
plays a crucial role in our daily routines and global trade in this technology dependent
world. There have been many documented incidents involving malfunctions and
damage to telephone and telegraph systems. There are many measures in place to
help prevent the system from a total collapse in case of a solar storm
event. These measures include
industry-wide sharing of best practices by industry groups such as Network
Reliability and Interoperability Council (NRIC) and others, geographic
diversity of a large system, redundant deployment of landlines, and wireless
and satellite capabilities providing alternate means that may help prevent the
telecom sector from experiencing a total system collapse. That does not mean the telecommunication
industry is not vulnerable to massive outages.
The digital systems may be sensitive and may be vulnerable to
disruptions. More work and investigative
research of this sector is needed to assess the status of readiness.
Oil and gas pipe lines:
In the
case of oil and gas pipelines, there is no acute risk for catastrophic
failure. It is primarily a life cycle
risk of increased corrosion leading to a reduction in service life. Design of
new pipelines should explicitly consider mitigation of various risk factors
described earlier. By improving the pipeline insulation, electrical isolation
to ground and enhanced cathodic protection with impressed current systems,
adverse corrosion effects of geomagnetically-induced currents can be monitored
in real time and mitigated to certain extent.
The Trans-Alaska pipe line is reportedly better designed for GIC
protection than the older Siberian pipeline. Additional pipeline survey,
maintenance, and considerably more research are needed for improving our
knowledge in this area.
Railways:
Railway
networks are also vulnerable to malfunction because of voltages generated by
the geomagnetically-induced currents.
Many large and geographically distributed infrastructures (water and
waste management systems, electric power, traffic signals, mass transit systems,
environmental control systems, and manufacturing systems) use "Supervisory
Control and Data Acquisition" (SCADA) that collect data and process
signals from remote sensors by telemetry for predetermined control actions. SCADA related risks are just not unique to
railroad alone as these systems are used in many large distributed
systems. Prior experience shows several
examples of unexplained rail signal malfunctions. These are probably examples of "soft
errors" from single-event effects in SCADA systems in solar storm events.
Industry
research has shown that SCADA systems may be vulnerable to EMP and solar storm
exposures. When these systems
malfunction, it can result in incorrect processing of sensor signal that can
lead to incorrect control action. To
address critical application requiring a more robust reliability, the SCADA
architecture may include redundant signal verification and validation for
prioritization of actions to improve the reliability. Unless upgraded, older designs and remote
telemetry aspects of SCADA systems in railroads are likely to be vulnerable to
malfunctions due to solar storm effects.
The mitigation measures are likely to focus on additional vigilance in
case of alerts and contingency plans to responds to potential emergencies.
Sources:
SOLAR FLARES
** First solar flare
http://www.ips.gov.au/Educational/2/4/4
http://www.december212012.com/articles/news/8.htm
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012.html
**RECENT SOLAR STORMS
http://z6mag.com/featured/solar-storm-in-march-2012-is-continuing-sunday-to-produce-next-aurora-borealis-166314.html
http://earthsky.org/space/another-major-solar-flare-during-night-of-march-6-7-2012
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2111506/Solar-storm-March-2012-Largest-solar-flare-5-years-hits-Earth.html
**PREDICTION
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2010/20100119_solarflare.html
http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/1999/mar/12/how-to-predict-solar-flares
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